Know your brokerage fee

Investing in shares must be done via brokerage, either you buy or sell, they take a cut irrespective of your gain or lose.

The big boys always had favourable fee structure from the brokerage house. It happen everywhere, in unit trust as well as share trading. Therefore, always go for the best rate.

Ask the brokerage with the high rates, what rate they give go the big boys?

Yes, you are the one that cross subsidized their profitability.

I am waiting for a fintech disruptor.....  

Kredit: redangpow.com

Lots of cash does not mean anything

Cash rich is everyone dream, right?

Not for this company.....

It is a company within authority surveillance, yet thousands still bear the brunt. Kesian.

Lowest price is on 5 June 2017 at 2 sen, the line goes flat thereafter. Maybe gone later. 

KYY pissed off. 

Basic Rules of Thumb of a Growth Company

10 Basic Rules of Thumb of a Growth Company:

1.     CAGR of Revenue > 15%
2.     CAGR of Net Profits > 15%
3.     Net Profit Margin > 8 %
4.     CAGR of Operation Cash Flow > 15%
5.     Positive Free Cash Flow
6.     Cash Ratio > 0.5
7.     ROE > 15%
8.     Debt to Equity Ratio < 0.5
9.     Price Earning Growth Ratio < 0.5
10.     Price < Intrinsic Value

Buy n forget! Its a growth company ma....

one up on wall street - peter lynch

favourable attributes of a company

1. It sound dull, ridiculous
dull name, less attention eg. 3 stooges

2. it does something dull
eg. manufacturing cork, bottle cap

3. it does something disagreeable
eg. deals with dirty sludge

4. it's a spin-off
eg. separation of companies into freestanding entity

5. institution don't own it & analyst don't own it

6. rumours abound: involve in toxic waste, mafia

7.something depressing about it
eg. funeral home

8. its a no growth industry
eg plastic fork/knife, boring, no competition

9.its got a niche
eg. rock pit, drug, drug companies

10. people have to keep buying it
eg. cigar, softdrink

11. its a user of technology
eg. use technology to cut cost

12. the insider are buyer
eg. workers buying its company share

13. the company is buying back its shares


comparing growth rate to PE ratio
eg. long term growth=x%
dividend yield=y%
PE ratio=z
factor=(x+y)/z
look for >= 2, 1.5=ok, less than 1=poor

evaluating the cash position
eg
cash+marketable securities=5.7+4.4=10.1b
long term debt=1.8b
cash position=10.1-1.8=8.3b
outstanding sh=500m
net cash/sh=8300/500=16.6 (ignore st debt)
say sh is trdg at 38, net buying is 21.4 (38-16.6)
if expected earning/sh=7
at 38/sh, PE=5.4 (38/7)
but at 21.4, PE=3.1

say other biz in the group is contributing earning of 1.6/sh and its PE its 10.
so, its value is 1.6x10=16, extracting 21.4-16=5.4

therefore the net buying of this share is only at 5.4 although we are purchasing it at  38.
these type of value may emerge at any time but definitely at when the whole market  is under distress, bad economic situation, share market plunging.

continue searching.....

Something technical

Break it away

As a rule of thumb, "high volume" for any given market is at least 25 percent above average for the past two weeks, and "low volume" is at least 25 percent below average.

1. High volume confirms trends. If prices rise to a new peak and volume reaches a new high, then prices are likely to retest or exceed that peak.
2. If the market falls to a new low and the volume reaches a new high, that bottom is likely to be retested or exceeded. A "climax bottom7' is almost always retested on low volume, offering an excellent buying opportunity.
3. If volume shrinks while a trend continues, that trend is ripe for a reversal. The reverse is untrue.

Prices represent the consensus of value, while volume represents the emotions of market participants.

On or off balance?

On-Balance Volume often rises or falls before prices - it acts as a leading indicator.
A new high in OBV shows that bulls are powerful, bears are hurting, and prices are likely to rise. A new low in OBV shows that bears are powerful, bulls are hurting, and prices are likely to fall. When the pattern of OBV deviates from the pattern of prices, it shows that mass emotions are not in gear with mass consensus. A crowd is more likely to follow its heart than its mind. This is why changes in volume often precede changes in prices. When OBV rises or falls together with prices, the trend is confirmed.

If prices reach a new high and OBV reaches a new high, the uptrend is likely to continue.

1. When OBV reaches a new high, it confirms the power of bulls, indicates that prices are likely to rise even higher, and gives a buy signal.
2. OBV gives its strongest buy and sell signals when it diverges from prices. If prices rally, sell off, and then rise to a new high, but OBV rallies to a lower high, it creates a bearish divergence and gives a strong sell signal. If prices decline, rebound, and then fall to a new low, but OBV falls to a more shallow bottom, it traces a bullish divergence and gives a strong buy signal.
3. When prices are in a trading range and OBV breaks out to a new high, it gives a buy signal. When prices are in a trading range and OBV breaks down and falls to a new low, it gives a signal to sell short.

Which way is the traffic?

The Directional System is unique in telling you when a major new trend is likely to begin. It signals when a new baby bull or baby bear is being born.

The relative position of Directional lines identifies trends. When the Positive Directional line is above the Negative Directional line, it shows that bullish traders dominate the market. When the Negative Directional line rises above the Positive Directional line, it shows that bearish traders are stronger. It pays to trade in the direction of the upper Directional line.

1. The best time to be long is when both +DI13 and ADX are above -DI13 and ADX rises.
2. When ADX declines, it shows that the market is becoming less directional.
3. When ADX falls below both Directional lines, it identifies a flat, sleepy market. Do not use a trend-following system but start getting ready, because major trends emerge from such lulls.
4. The single best signal of the Directional system comes after ADX falls below both Directional lines. The longer it stays there, the stronger the base for the next move. 

When ADX rallies from below both Directional lines, it shows that the market is waking up from a lull.

Add or deduct

It was designed as a leading indicator for stocks, the unique feature of Accumulation/Distribution (AD) is that it tracks the relationship between opening and closing prices, along with volume. If prices close higher than they opened, then bulls won the day and AD is positive. If prices close lower than they opened, then the bears won and AD is negative. If pricks close where they opened, then nobody won and A/D is zero. A running total of each day's AID creates acumulative Accumulation/Distribution indicator.

The best trading signals are given by divergences between AD and prices. 

1. A bullish divergence occurs when prices fall to a new low but AD stops at a higher low than during its previous decline. It shows that market professionals are using the decline for buying, and a rally is coming.
2. If prices rally to a new high but AID reaches a lower peak, it gives a signal of bearish divergence, sell.

Waiting for spring or autumn

• Screen 1: Weekly macd-histogram rising.
• Screen 2: Use oscillator to a daily chart, find declines during weekly uptrends.
• Screen 3: Use the trailing buy-stop technique when the weekly trend is up and the daily oscillator is down(stocastic/william%?).

Trailing buy stop technique: Place a buy order one tick above the high of the previous day.

As soon as you buy, place a stop-loss order one tick below the low of the trade day or the previous day, whichever is lower. Limit is only 2%.

Ride till price goes below 13wma or weekly stocastic going down from overbought or negative SAR begin.

Weekly Trend-Daily Trend-Action-Order:

UP-Down-Go long-Trailing buy stop

Good luck! Thanks doc.

Reality Check: Lapuran Penganalisa Saham untuk siapa sebenarnya?

Sesiapa yang baru berada dalam pasaran saham selalu tertanya, nak ikut laluan mana satu, ikut FA-Analisa fundamental, atau TA-Analisa Teknikal. Dua-dua ada pro dan con masing-masing. Warren Buffet pun menang, Darryl Guppy pun menang, aku???

Tiada jawapan terus dalam hal ini. Paparan ini tercetus dari artikel INI dimana blogger ni dah buat analisa beliau dalam pasaran unit trust. Dia ada kaedah tersendiri dalam memilih tabungan dengan melakukan analisa berdasarkan prestasi.
Lalu saya ambil kaedah yang sama dan melihat dari sudut pasaran saham pula kerana pada saya "lapuran penganalisa ini bersepah" dan siapa-siapa pun boleh dapatkannya. Dari lapuran ini, yang ketara adalah cadangan ataupun syor untuk beli atau jual.

Jadi untuk tujuan mencari jawapan ini, saya gunakan lapuran dari sebuah institusi yang besar dirantau asia ini (lapuran ini lebih 300 mukasurat, bak kata orang - koprehensif). Mereka-mereka yang
menulis lapuran ini adalah kebanyakannya adalah lulusan professional dalam bidang analisa ini.

Jawapan yang saya cari ialah: Adakah lapuran penganalisa ini untuk saya?

Ringkasan penilaian

Data dalam rigkasan diatas adalah berikut:
1. ID - nombor pengenalan data
2. Pr@8Dec14 -Harga pada tarikh berkenaan
3. Tgt - Target Harga
4. %UpDn - Peratusan kenaian atau penurunan
5. Recom - Cadangan/Syor penganalisa
6. Prdict  - Tukar Reduce=0, Hold=1, Add=2*
7. Pr@Dec - Harga pada akhir Dec14
8. Pr@Sep15 - Harga pada akhir Sep15
9. PrCheck  - Ruang untuk memeriksa harga adalah munasabah^^
10.PrSepVsTgt - Harga Sep15 tolak Harga Target
11.VsTgt - Lose=kalah, Better=Menang**
12.Actual  - Tukar Lose=10, Better=11*

* Dua kolum ini adalah representasi untuk plot graf sahaja.
^^ Didapati ada satu data mengalami split/pecahan nilai
**  Lose=Harga Sept dibawah Target, Menang=Harga Sept melebihi Target Harga

Seksyen berwarna sebelah kiri adalah cabutan dari lapuran penganalisa dan seksyen sebelah kanan adalah analisa saya untuk menentukan jawapan yang saya cari.


Di akhir lapuran penganalisa ada definasi berikut:-

Stock Ratings Definition:
Add: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.
Reduce: The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.


Ya jangkamasa 12 bulan tu ada ~ dua bulan lagi, jadi analisa ni terkurang 2 bulan lah.
Tak mengapa kerana saya bukan memerlukan jawapan tepat seperti saintis loji nuklear - saya hanya ingin buat validasi adakah lapuran penganalisa saham untuk kita?

Klik imej untuk besarkan

Dari plot graf diatas saya dah dapat jawapan. Lapuran tersebut bukan untuk orang seperti saya. Anda yang masih ingin kepastian, boleh download fail pdf tersebut dan mulakan kajian sendiri. Ini adalah kajian/pandangan saya untuk menang dalam pasaran - anda bebas menilai!

Jadi saya akan lebih berhati-hatilah selepas ini apabila anda membaca Lapuran Penganalisa Saham kerana saya dah yakin rata-rata lapuran ini bukan untuk saya. Untuk siapa? Masih tiada jawapan.

Mungkin selepas ini saya tulis pula bila lapuran mereka boleh diambil kira.....

SPAC money spinners?

Article by: Random Trading in Aug 2014

SPAC is a wonderful thing..... for the promoter, initial investor and of course selected investors including the so-called cornerstone investor that can get the share directly by private placement. Take the latest SPAC IPO, Reach Energy for example.

When I went through the prospectus of the IPO, I'm quite puzzling about the allocation of the shares available to the public. Basically there are 1 Billion shares issued with 1 Billion free warrant attached with it. What makes me baffling is that 980 Million of those shares are applicable to 'Selected Investors' which include cornerstone investors. Looks, 98% of the 'Public' portion goes to the 'Selected Investors' and the pathetically 20 Million shares are allotted to the 'Real Public' like you and me. Seriously, only the meager 2% are offering to the Malaysian Public and you call it IPO. Why don't you guys just ask another 'Selected Investor' subscribe the rest and keep the company private for your club members. The 42 times oversubscribe is just another joke. Why did our authority allow this blatantly abuse of IPO a green light. You know what is the worst part of it? There is moratorium on the promoter and initial investor BUT NOT THE 'SELECTED INVESTOR' & CORNERSTONE INVESTOR!!! WHY? Ohh... because they are deem to be pubic allocation so no need for moratorium. WOW!!! NICE!!!

Then, who is these 'selected investors'? I don't know because I can't find any of that information from the prospectus. If any one knows please let me know. Also they didn't mentioned the criteria to become 'selected investors' because I believe the real public really want to know so that we can qualify ourselves to become 'selected investors'. Why Bursa didn't compel them to disclose the information of these 'selected investors' since they take up almost all the IPO's shares? Are they related to the promoters or initial investors? Don't you think it is important since if they are related then there is a very high chance they can circumvent the moratorium to make a quick bucks out of it. Why the Minority Watchdog didn't bring the issue to the authority?

Further breakdown of the shareholding of the enlarge Reach Energy as below:

Reach Energy Holding (Promoter) - 20%
Daya Material (Initial investor) - 1.74%
Selected investors - 76.7%
Real Public - 1.56% (Who ever successfully subscribe this portion can consider themselves extremely lucky)

Then below is the effective cash cost per shares for the various shareholders: (This is mind-blowing)

Reach Energy Holding (REH)
113.6M shares + 113.6M Free Warrant (FW) @ 0.045
142M shares + 142M FW @ 0.099
Total cost RM 19.17 Million for total 255.6 M shares + 255.6 M FW

Daya Material (I will just provide the cost directly instead of showing the calculation)
Total cost RM 20 Million for total 22,222,225 Shares + 22,222,225 FW

Selected Investors & Real Public cost is RM 0.75 per shares + FW

So just take the closing price of 1st trading day, Reach - 0.705 & Reach WA - 0.225

Paper gain for :
REH = RM 218,538,000
Daya = RM 666,667 ( not so much, probably that's why its share price fall)
Selected Investors = RM 176,000,000 (ohh ya! this is not paper gain since they can actually sell it)

Real Public = RM 900,000

Ya. They do gave the reasons to justify why the promoter should allow to have that potential gain :

1) They invested RM 10M before the IPO so if IPO failed to go through then they will have to absorb the lost. (basically they are telling us that they make a bet of 10 M for potential of more than 200 M)

2) The remuneration of the management team came from the fund that promoter put in, not the public subscription money. But they forget to mentioned that the management team is actually the promoter so the money is just left hand out, right hand in. So, where is the risk?

3) In case they failed to make QA within stipulated time, they might not get the pro-rata refund from the trust money. Well, since they already cycle back their initial fund from the remuneration, I don't see they have anything to lose at all.

Ya, I forget to show you the management team remuneration package: (I purposely took off their names)

So, whether they are justified to allow the potential WINDFALL or not, I leave it to you to make your judgement.

That's why to me, SPAC is the most brilliant invention of modern stock market.

Off from day one, until....

Related Article >>> Data con?



UPDATE: 25Feb2016

Cliq to be liquidated, SC rejects request for deadline extension

Probably the first in the series. 

In these troubled times do you hold stocks or cash?

As a result of the sharp plummet on the stock market, in these troubled times do you hold stocks or cash? Some investors regret not selling their stocks early as almost all of their stocks have been incurring huge losses.

However, the market recovery over the past few days caused some investors to again regret — not buying stocks when the market hit the bottom.

The decision to hold more cash or stocks is one of the most difficult decisions to make.

According to a study by Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood and Gilbert L. Beebower in 1986, 95% of the variance of fund returns was the result of the asset allocation decision.

Hence, the right asset allocation between cash and stocks plays a very important role in determining the returns of a portfolio.

In this article, we will look into two key strategies in asset allocation, namely the constant mix (CM) and the constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy.

The key principle behind the CM strategy is to buy stocks when the market drops and sell them when the market recovers.

As for the CPPI strategy, it is the reverse, which is to sell when the market plunges and buy when it recovers.

We should continue selling stocks until the portfolio drops near our pre-set floor level. Once the market touches our floor level, we will hold all cash and no stocks.

Under normal market conditions, the CM strategy is an excellent tool for rebalancing our portfolio.

This strategy requires us to rebalance our portfolio based on a constant mix, where we set a constant ratio of stocks to total assets.

Assuming we have only two asset classes, namely stocks and cash, we will maintain the desired invested portion in our portfolio regardless of market conditions.

If we have a portfolio value of RM100,000 and intend to maintain a stocks to total asset ratio of 60%, we invest RM60,000 in stocks and hold RM40,000 cash.

If the overall market drops by 10%, our stocks will drop by RM6,000 (10% of RM60,000) to RM54,000. Now, our portfolio will be RM94,000 (RM54,000 + RM40,000 cash)

Our invested portion will drop to 57.5% (RM54,000 of stocks divided by our new portfolio value of RM94,000).

In order to maintain a 60% investment, we need to have an invested portion of RM56,400 (0.6 x RM94,000).

So we will use RM2,400 in cash to buy stocks (RM56,400 - RM54,000).

After this portfolio rebalancing, our new invested portions will be RM56,400 in stocks and RM37,600 in cash.

This will bring the invested portion back to 60% with the total portfolio value of RM94,000.

The CM strategy will cause us to buy more stocks when the market drops. We will be able to acquire a lot of quality stocks at cheap prices.

However, we will continue buying more stocks while the overall market continues to plunge.

During a bear market, we will see our portfolio shrink in value as our earlier purchase price may get cheaper.

Unfortunately, not many investors can tolerate a drop in their portfolio value.

The CPPI strategy is appropriate for use in either a super bull or a super bear market.

It is not suitable for use on normal market periods as we need to sell stocks when the market drops and buy when the market is on the way up.

We may end up buying at high prices and selling them at low.

Under the CPPI strategy, the portion of money in stocks is based on the formula that:

Money in stock = M x (TA - Floor) Where M = stock investment multiplier (proportion), TA = total assets held in the portfolio, Floor = the minimum allowable portfolio value (zero risk level) and TA - Floor = cushion or funds that can be put at risk.

Assuming we have a portfolio value of RM100,000, if we set our minimum allowable value (Floor) = RM70,000 and stock multiplier (M) = 2, we will invest RM60,000 in stocks [2 x (RM100,000 – RM70,000)].

If the overall market drops by 10%, our stocks will drop by RM6,000 (10% of RM60,000) to RM54,000. Our portfolio will be RM94,000 (RM54,000 + RM40,000 cash).

Our invested portion needs to be reduced to RM48,000 as 2 x (RM94,000 – RM70,000).

We need to dispose of RM6,000 worth of stocks (RM54,000 – RM48,000) and bring the cash level to RM46,000.

Following this portfolio rebalancing, the portion invested in stock is RM48,000 with cash of RM46,000.

The total portfolio value is RM94,000.

We will continue to sell stocks and hold more cash as the market drops.

We will stop investing in stocks when our total portfolio hits the floor level (TA – Floor= 0).

The strength of the CPPI strategy is that our lowest portfolio value at any point in time will be RM70,000 whereas the CM strategy may cause our portfolio value to drop much lower if the market crashes further.

In conclusion, the choice of strategy will depend on the overall economic outlook.

Unless we know our economy will not drop into recession, otherwise — based on our current situation, the CPPI strategy has the advantage of protecting our minimum portfolio value at the floor level.

Article by Ooi Kok Hwa, is an investment adviser licensed by Securities Commission. The choice is yours.

CIS - The Mystery Man Who Moves....

The man who made the market for SoftBank that winter morning was sitting in pajamas in a bedroom cluttered with comic books. He was leaning into the glare of four computer screens and munching a carrot -- something to calm his stomach. 

Read more....

20 Reasons I Won’t Return to a Stock Market Job

This is one good piece of confession found at safalniveshak.com

A friend also relate his story to me. He did follow analyst advice many years before until he discover a "highly promising buy call" from almost all analysts and the counters fell into the ditch a year later. After that episode, he never trust their words anymore, and his winnings thereafter are all base on waiting fundamentally strong to come out of their slumber. It really pay off!

1.  It’s a place where logic, as I’ve learned over the years, doesn’t always matter.
2. It’s a place where the priorities are out of order – making fast money and evangelizing big investors is on the top of this priority list. The small investor, I think, does not exist at all!
3. It’s a place where analysts are able (and are paid) to find stocks that are “good values at any price” and stocks the values of which will “perpetually rise”.
4. It’s a place where daylight robbery happens in the plain sight of everyone, from investors to regulators – and no one seem to mind.
5. It’s a place where you are counted among the few foolish if you try to stay objective.
6. It’s a place where dealing with small investors is considered a wastage of time – that distracts the analyst from “doing research”, and siphons off time that otherwise might be used to serve big, institutional clients and win “best analyst” votes.
7. It’s a place where “risk” is thrown out of the window…literally!
8. It’s a place where “warnings”, “worst case scenarios”, and other details that institutional clients read and take time to understand never make it to the regular folks (people like you and me).
9. It’s a place where the only game they play is called “expectations”, and reality, even when it bites, never gets etched in the mind.
10. It’s the only place where trees rise to the skies.
11. It’s a place filled with misplaced belief that analysts seem to have the magic wand to reverse a stock’s decline, simply by saying it wasn’t so.
12. It’s a place where information travels unevenly. Of course, the small investor gets the least information, and gets it last!
13. It’s a place with so many disappointments and reversals that at the end of a few years, you lose the ability to be shocked by anything.
14. It’s a place where, as you gain experience, you lose your powers of rational thinking.
15. It’s a place where, if you have some sanity left, you will add a line in your valuation model that reads – “adjustment for irrational exuberance”.
16. It’s a place where the small investor is playing a loser’s game.
17. It’s a place where your obligation to be independent isn’t economically logical, especially when you are working with a broking firm whose primary purpose is to maximize profits.
18. It’s a place filled with “smart” men and women who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
19. It’s a place where two types of people meet up in the morning: those with experience and those with money. At the end of each day, those who had experience have the money, and those who had money have the experience.
20. It’s a place where they fool people. 

"Think independently and don’t let yourself be influenced by the “noise”. Stay focused on analysis, valuation, and margin of safety. Despite all its ills, the stock market is still a place where you, if you can keep your head when others around you are losing their’s, you can achieve your financial freedom."

Related post on PDT/IVTs

If I knew, would I invest?

A tribute to a warrior and a fallen angel!

Warrior - its not you, actually, and angel, just believe in destiny and move on.

Treat All Investors Equally

I REFER to the report “Bursa sets record straight on remisiers issues” (The Star, Dec 11). The concerns raised by the Remisiers’ Association of Malaysia or Pesama has its basis.

Liberalisation of brokerage fees is fine if it reduces trading cost for all investors. However, what many investors are not aware of is that there exist certain type of privileged market players who do not pay any fees. They are called Proprietary Day Traders (PDTs) and Investment Accounts (IVTs).

Basically, these are personal or the house account of the dealer or broker and their full-time job is to trade or speculate as much as possible.They are not serious or long-term investors as they will usually square their positions on the same day.

While most investors must pay brokerage fee, clearing fee and stamp duty whenever they trade, these PDTs and IVTs do not incur such costs. This zero cost privilege has enabled them to profit from even a minimal of one uptick or half a sen when normal investors have to wait patiently for at least nine upticks before they can even break even (based on the minimal brokerage of RM40 for both the buy and sell side).

Since they pay no fees and therefore bring no income to the regulators, why are they treated better than others?

Effectively, they are granted a free hand to trade, speculate or gamble in the market on a different set of rules of which the odds are better off than the genuine and serious investors.This has made a mockery of the fair and orderly market motto that the regulators often trumpet.

It has been argued that the privilege is given as an inducement for them to trade and thereby create an impression of active and vibrant market condition. The intention is well and good. However, the reality is that it has created extreme disorderliness and volatility to price and volume movement arising from their aggressive speculative nature and coming from a nothing-to-lose mentality due to the zero cost benefit.
Their no value added activities have caused more headaches than positives for the regulators.

Many unusual trading activities were not due to any material development in the company but were due to excessive speculation by these PDTs and IVTs.In addition, regulators have set little limits over their trading activities. It has often been said that the regulators have created an animal they can’t control.
It is like letting loose a high horsepower car on the highway without imposing any speed limit thereby endangering other users.

Many genuine and serious investors have been influenced/lured to trade by the price and volume trend, thinking something materially positive may be developing in the company; only to discover later that it was just speculation caused by these parties hoping to profit from price volatility.
The regulators need to get their act together and treat all investors equally especially when it comes to investing as the money used to invest may be hard earned.

Investors must also be informed and aware that rules of the game may not be the same for everyone and not be overly excited by rise in price and volume as this may just be hot air created out of nothing.

STRICTLY FAIR AND ORDERLY
Kajang

This reader comment was published in TheStar on 13Dec13.
So who is protecting the small fish?

The best business is when they come n give you cash, daily!

Don't you agree? Who owns it, the masses or the chosen few?

Gamuda, which already owns 30% of Kesas, recently obtained the nod to acquire 20% each in the highway concessionaire from Amcorp Properties Bhd (Amprop) and Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB), thereby increasing its stake to 70%.

Gamuda has a 45% stake in Lingkaran Trans Kota Holdings Bhd, which owns and operates Lebuhraya Damansara–Puchong; a 52% stake in Sistem Penyuraian Trafik KL Barat Holdings Bhd, which has the SPRINT highway; and a 50% stake in Syarikat Mengurus Air Banjir dan Terowong Sdn Bhd, which operates the SMART Tunnel.

Ekovest is the 70% owner of DUKE via Wira Kristal Sdn Bhd. The owners of Wira Kristal are Tan Sri Lim Kang Hoo and Datuk Haris Onn Hussein. Wira Kristal owns 70% of Nuzen Corp Sdn Bhd, which has a 34-year concession of Duke via its wholly-owned Konsortium Lebuhraya Utara-Timur (KL) Sdn Bhd.

Maju Expressway Sdn Bhd (MESB) is the concessionaire of the 26-km Maju Expressway which offers a direct link between Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and Cyberjaya. MEX started collecting tolling in 2008 and traffic volume has increased by a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with average daily traffic at its two toll plazas reaching 100,000 vehicles in 2012. A new 1.7-km Seri Kembangan interchange along the highway is expected to boost MESB's earnings, via a new toll plaza scheduled to be completed by early 2015, and the extension of its concession by up to eight years.

UEM Group Bhd and the Employees Provident Fund had acquired PLUS Expressways for RM23bil in 2010.

Do you know until when is the end of concession period of all toll road in Malaysia? Go figure it out how much you gonna fork it out of your own wallet for the privilege of stuck in jam of certain tolled road.

Bagaimana nak kira premium H waran?

Warrants are good leverage vehicle!

Bagaimana nak kira premium H waran atau C waran? Kiraan ada dibawah! Dah menang sedekah sikit....

H = Put Warrant & C= Call Warrant

What is the meaning of Barakah?

Oil n gas, hot favourite!
But what are they actually doing and who are playing the short and long game - keep in mind and see the big picture yourself!

 Barakah indeed for the players!

Kejatuhan mendadak saham Dsonic, kenapa?

Sebelum ini kita lihat kejatuhan saham Zhulian dan ini pula berlaku pada saham Dsonic. Harap beri perhatian pada artikel berikut dibawah yang telah disiarkan oleh TheStar dimana komen oleh pakar waran Alan Voon. Hati-hati jika anda melabur dalam "call warrant". Manipulasi yang dibenarkan?......


PETALING JAYA: Shares of Datasonic Group Bhd have steadied, but questions are still being asked about the stock’s spectacular run-up since January this year and its sudden plunge on Friday.
The share correction in Datasonic’s share price came amidst a rare trading caution on the stock issued by Bursa Malaysia on April 2 and days after a call warrant (CW) was issued on the company by an investment bank.
Alan Voon, a warrants specialist, offered his view that it was risky for a third party to issue a call warrant on shares of a company that had gone up 10 times in the last one year.
“If I had to make a general deduction, I would imagine a high risk bet by the issuer on Datasonic if the share prices continued the upward trajectory it had been on,’’ he said.

The issuer would have needed to protect itself, Voon said, either by hedging or coming to some kind of arrangement with those holding large chunks of the shares in the company.
The call warrants on Datasonic caught interest because the company had publicly issued a statement on March 28 to distance itself from the instrument.
In a statement to Bursa Malaysia, Datasonic stated that the company was not involved or responsible for the issuance of the call warrants by an investment bank.
“The board wishes to draw attention to all investors that Datasonic is not liable and takes no responsibility for the call warrants,” it said.
There is a large number of call warrants issued by third party issuers in the market. These call warrants are primarily aimed at short term speculators looking to ride on the company with minimal capital outlay.
AmBank’s call warrants on Datasonic carries a conversion ratio of six-for-one at an exercise price of RM3.72. Datasonic-CW was last traded at 30 sen yesterday, up 0.5 sen from its previous close.
The CW will expire on Jan 12, 2015. Meanwhile, the underlaying Datasonic share price slipped 6 sen, or 1.6% yesterday to close at RM3.58 on a volume of 6.81 million shares.
A total of 30.8 million shares were transacted on Friday, on the day when the stock collapsed by RM1.06, or 22.6% to RM3.64 amid reports that it may attract stricter trading curbs by the exchange.
This was later denied by the company in a brief press statement.
“The volatility is likely to ensue until the last of the warrants is sold.
“Only then will trading volume ebb,” Voon said.
Datasonic’s share price had surged from about RM2 in May 2013 to nearly RM10 in late December.
After its one-for-two bonus issue in July 2013 and a one-into-five share split in December, its share price again continued its upward trajectory.
Its earnings leapt 505% to RM22.81mil in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2013 from RM3.76mil a year ago, bolstered by an improvement in revenue.
Its revenue rose at a slower pace of 73% to RM72.55mil from RM41.96mil. Earnings per share were 3.38 sen compared with 0.56 sen.

Most successful dividend investors

Dividend investing is as sexy as watching paint dry on the wall. Defining an entry criteria that selects quality dividend stocks with rising dividends over time and then patiently reinvesting these dividends while sitting on your hands is not exciting. While active traders have a plethora of hedge fund managers on the covers of Forbes magazine there are not many well-publicized successful dividend investors. Even value investing has its own superstars – Ben Graham and Warren Buffett.

I did some research and uncovered several successful dividend investors, whose stories provide reassurance that the traits of successful dividend investing I outlined in a previous post are indeed accurate.

The first investor is Anne Scheiber, who turned a $5,000 investment in 1944 into $22 million by the time of her death at the age of 101 in 1995. Anne Scheiber worked as an IRS auditor for 23 years, never earning more than $3150/year. The one important lesson she learned auditing tax returns was that the surest way to become rich in America is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold, in order to avoid paying taxes and commissions. She also never sold even during the 1972-1974 bear market as well as the 1987 market crash because she had high conviction in her stocks picks. She also held a diversified portfolio of almost 100 individual securities in brand names such as Coca-Cola (KO), PepsiCo (PEP), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Schering Plough (acquired by Pfizer in 2009). She read annual reports with the same inquisitive mind she audited tax returns during her tenure at the IRS and also attended annual shareholders meetings. Anne Scheiber did her own research on stocks, and was focusing her attention on strong franchises which have the opportunity to increase earnings and pay higher dividends over time.

In her later years she reinvested her dividends into tax free municipal bonds, which is why her portfolio had a 30% allocation to fixed income at the time of her death. At the time of her death, her portfolio was throwing off $750,000 in dividend and interest income annually. She donated her whole fortune to Yeshiva University, even though she never attended it herself.

The second investor is Grace Groner, who turned a small $180 investment in 1935 into $7 million by the time of her death in 2010. Ms Groner, who worked as a secretary at Abbott Laboratories for 43 years invested $180 in 3 shares of Abbott Laboratories (ABT) in 1935. She then simply reinvested the dividends for the next 75 years. She never sold, but just held on to her shares.

She was frugal, having grown up in the depression era, and was the classical millionaire next door type of person who was not interested in keeping up with the Joneses. Grace Groner left her entire fortune to her Alma Mater. Her $7 million donation is generating approximately $250,000 in annual dividend income.

The reason why dividend investors are not highly publicized is because dividend investing is not sexy enough to be featured in the financial mainstream media. In addition to that, it is not profitable for Wall Street to sell you into the idea that ordinary investors can invest on their own. Compare this to mutual funds, annuities and other products which generate billions in commissions for Wall Street, despite the fact that they might not be in the best interest of small investors.

The third dividend investor is Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself. In a previous article I have outlined the reasoning behind my belief that Buffett is a closet dividend investor. He explicitly noted in his 2009 letter that "the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow". His investment in See's Candy is the best example of that.

Some of Buffett's best companies/stock that he has owned such as Geico, Coca Cola , See's Candy are exactly the types of investments mentioned above. He has mentioned that at Berkshire he tries to stick with businesses whose profit picture for decades to come seems reasonably predictable. Per Buffett the best businesses by far for owners continue to be those that have high returns on capital and that require little incremental investment to grow. In addition, his 2011 letter discussed his dividend income from all of Berkshire Hathaway investments, including his prediction that Coca Cola dividends will keep on increasing, based on the pattern of historical dividend increases.

In this article I outlined three dividend investors, who managed to turn small investments into cash machines that generated large amounts of dividends. They were able to accomplish this through identifying quality dividend growth companies at attractive valuations, patiently reinvesting distributions and in two out of three cases maintaining a diversified portfolio of stocks. These are the lessons that all investors could profit from.

Taken from: http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2012/06/most-successful-dividend-investors-of.html

bursa-dividend.blogspot.com

I want to plant a tree......

The next new millionaire are the farmers....

Go figure it out!

Apa terjadi pada saham Zhulian pada 23 Januari 2014

Saham Zhulian jatuh 101 sen dalam sehari pada 23 Januari 2014? Kenapa?

5131CA    ZHULIAN-CA    ZHULIAN-CA:CW ZHULIAN CORP(C)
Listing Information & Profile for Structured Warrants
Instrument Type : Structured Warrants
Type of Structured Warrants : Call Warrants
Description : European Style Non-Collateralised Cash-Settled
Underlying Stock : Zhulian Corporation Berhad
Issuer : CIMB Bank Berhad
Stock Code : 5131CA
Stock Short Name : ZHULIAN-CA
ISIN Code: MYL5131CAO14
Board : Structured Warrants
Sector : CONSUMER PRODUCTS

5131CA    ZHULIAN-CA    ZHULIAN-CA:CW ZHULIAN CORP(C)
Expiry/Maturity of the securities
Type of Securities : Structured Warrants
Type of Structured Warrants : Call Warrants
Type of Expiry : Expiry/Maturity of the securities
Exercise/ Strike/ Conversion Price : MYR 3.0000
Exercise/ Conversion Ratio : 2 : 1
Settlement Type/ Convertible into : Cash
Last Date & Time for Trading : 27/01/2014 05:00 PM
Date & Time of Suspension : 28/01/2014 09:00 AM
Last Date & Time for Transfer into Depositor's CDS a/c : 30/01/2014 04:00 PM
Date & Time of Expiry : 30/01/2014 05:00 PM
Date & Time of Delisting : 04/02/2014 09:00 AM
Remarks : You are advised to read the full announcement at http://www.bursamalaysia.com.

ZHULIAN ada dua call waran, ZHULIAN-CA dan ZHULIAN-CB.

ZHULIAN-CA akan tamat tempoh pada matang pada 30 Jan 2014 dan penyelesaian tunai adalah secara 2 CA + RM3 dan 27 Jan 2014 adalah hari terakhir dagangan saham yang berjumlah 50 juta unit ini.

Jika harga ZHULIAN(ibu) ialah RM4.60, penyelesaian untuk ZHULIAN-CA adalah (RM4.6 - RM3) / 2 = 80sen.

Jadi untuk 50 juta unit ZHULIAN-CA, pengeluar perlu membayar
RM0.8 X 50,000,000 = RM40,000,000 (RM40juta) kepada pemegang unit ZHULIAN-CA.

Hari ini ZHULIAN ditutup RM3.60, jadi (RM3.6 - RM3) / 2 = 30sen, dan untuk 50 juta unit ZHULIAN-CA, pengeluar akan membayar RM0.30 X 50,000,000 = RM15, 000,000 (RM15juta) kepada pemegang saham ZHULIAN-CA. (*andaian mudah - rujuk link contoh kiraan dibawah)

Keadaan ini membuatkan pengeluar hanya perlu keluarkan RM15 juta sahaja, jimat 25juta (40 - 15)

Jumlah dagangan ZHULIAN ialah 12,551,800 unit dan adakah ZHULIAN adalah saham yang dikategori dalam list "regulated short selling (RSS)", yakni saham-saham yang boleh dijual tanpa memiliki saham tersebut? Lihat DISINI.

Maklumat lanjut mengenai SBLCLA (Bursa Securities Borrowing and Lending - Central Lending Agency) DISINI.

Jika semua ini adalah jualan pengeluar, dan semua yang dijual pada purata (RM4.00) kerana harga jatuh dari RM4.61 dan ditutup pada RM3.60, katakan keuntungan dalam RM0.60 sesaham.
RM4.61 - RM3.6 = RM1.01 (jumlah kejatuhan harga penuh)

Jika andaian purata keuntungan ialah RM0.60,
RM0.60 X 12,551,800 = RM7,531,080 (keuntungan dijana melalui ZHULIAN)

Akhirnya dari RM15juta - RM7.53juta = RM7.46juta

Jika ditakdirkan semua adalah jualan mereka, RM1.01 x 12,551,800 = RM12.67juta, anggaran kerugian akhir hanya RM2.33 juta sahaja (kiraan tidak mengambil kira pendapatan permulaan 50juta unit x RM0.15 = RM7.5juta semasa terbitan unit).

Rata-rata hampir kesemua saham-saham yang berada dalam "regulated short selling" mempunyai call atau put warrant yang dikeluarkan oleh investment bank. Kalau x percaya, ambil list tu dan periksa sendiri.

Mana volume - kenapa tiada yg menjual?

Jadi awasi, ini mungkin bukan kali terakhir pekara sebegini boleh berlaku & coolnya pemegang unit ZHULIAN-CA.....no matter what they will win, jap je lagi!

Tak masuk akal, teruskan kajian - selamat menemui hypothesis yang lebih masuk akal kerana ZHULIAN-CA akan jadi sejarah muzium! Ingatan untuk tidak dimakan jerung.



Rujukan lanjut
1. Contoh pengiraan penyelesaian call waran
2. SBL

Boom - bust clock

where are we now?

lets go surfing....