Nilai jenama

Brand value - nilai jenama. Kenapa saya suka kopi tu, saya suka kereta ni. Jenama adalah penting demi kesinambungan sesuatu syarikat. Hanya mereka yang dilatih dalam "media brand reading" boleh merasai kepentingan carta sebegini.

2018

METFUS50 - 0827EA - 3Sep2018 - RM1.07 - MyETF-US50. 

Revisit selepas 3Sep2028. RM? 

Know your brokerage fee

Investing in shares must be done via brokerage, either you buy or sell, they take a cut irrespective of your gain or lose.

The big boys always had favourable fee structure from the brokerage house. It happen everywhere, in unit trust as well as share trading. Therefore, always go for the best rate.

Ask the brokerage with the high rates, what rate they give go the big boys?

Yes, you are the one that cross subsidized their profitability.

I am waiting for a fintech disruptor.....  

Kredit: redangpow.com

Basic Rules of Thumb of a Growth Company

10 Basic Rules of Thumb of a Growth Company:

1.     CAGR of Revenue > 15%
2.     CAGR of Net Profits > 15%
3.     Net Profit Margin > 8 %
4.     CAGR of Operation Cash Flow > 15%
5.     Positive Free Cash Flow
6.     Cash Ratio > 0.5
7.     ROE > 15%
8.     Debt to Equity Ratio < 0.5
9.     Price Earning Growth Ratio < 0.5
10.     Price < Intrinsic Value

Buy n forget! Its a growth company ma....

Is your unit trust doing well?

Most unit trust funds underperform the market

Kroijer points out that most unit trust funds have under performed the market in the last decade. “Almost 90% of the equity mutual funds globally have underperformed the market in the past 10 years (net of fees), based on numerous studies and reports. While some fund managers were able to beat the market, they still underperformed after deducting the fees (which include the sales charge and annual management fee),” he says.

According to the S&P Dow Jones Indices’ semi-annual report published in September, the S&P Indices Versus Active (Spiva) scorecard shows that as at June, 87.5% of the actively managed equity funds in the US underperformed its benchmark in the past decade. The Spiva Europe Scoreboard, which measures the performance of actively managed European equity funds, says 96% of the European funds underperformed their benchmark over a 10-year period as at the end of last year. According to the scorecard, European actively managed emerging market equity funds also suffered the same fate.

“There is a widely held belief that active portfolio management can be most effective in less efficient markets, such as emerging market equities, as these markets can provide managers the opportunities to exploit perceived mispricing. However, this view is not substantiated by our research as active funds underperformed their benchmarks in all time horizons, with 96% of funds underperforming the 10-year period,” says the report.

The fees imposed on investors are the main reason these funds underperformed the market, says Kroijer. Throughout his career, he has seen many investors pay huge amounts of fees to fund managers only to see their funds underperform the markets.

He says this is especially true in the hedge fund industry. “It was very hard to distinguish between the hedge funds that created value and those that did not when the markets consistently went up during those years. It was only during the huge declines of 2008/09 that many hedge fund managers found out that they had only been taking a long position on the market without adding much value.

“Of course, some of them made a huge amount of money by providing a little more value-add [but that did not justify the fees]. No wonder there were a lot of angry investors.”

Kroijer says hedge funds usually charge investors a 2% annual management fee and 20% of the total net profit. While the charges of unit trust funds are much lower than hedge funds, it is still not good enough as 9 out of 10 funds underperform the market net of fees, he points out.

The global equities index fund will provide you with diversification, compared with a single country ETF. For instance, if you only buy into the Malaysian index and it goes down by 50%, you will take a hit in your portfolio. But the global equities index fund as a whole may be unaffected.

Currently, there aren’t any global equity ETFs on Bursa Malaysia. But local investors can access them via overseas brokerage accounts.

Investors could look at the db x-trackers MSCI World Index UCITS ETF, which is listed on the Singapore Exchange, or the Infinity Global Stock Index Fund, which feeds into the Vanguard Global Stock Index Fund. The latter tracks the MSCI World Free Index, which comprises a basket of 1,600 stocks.

Investors could also look into the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF and iShares MSCI World Equity ETF, which are listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

> Lars Kroijer, author of Money Mavericks: Confession of a Hedge Fund Manager and Investing Demystified: How to Invest without Speculation and Sleepless Nights.

See the dividends

Thanks to Lars Kroijer for doing the research and confirming my hunch. Its simple, if the fund manager can't beat the average performance of EPF (EPF also weeding them out on yearly basis) or PNB, just liquidate and move on. Performance is everything because you are in the business of growing your own assets, not their assets. Look at the Dec16 performance table below and get the message. It really painful when the so called qualified professional lose your money on your behalf. Lose the money yourself, at least you gain the experience!

1,2,3,5,10 yrs anualised performance

Hint: When the markets are badly down, look at their top holdings, if it is full of dividends paying company, hit the fund for a killing because market cannot be down all the time, it is a business as well here. Else who will pay for the managers salary! 

Reality Check: Lapuran Penganalisa Saham untuk siapa sebenarnya?

Sesiapa yang baru berada dalam pasaran saham selalu tertanya, nak ikut laluan mana satu, ikut FA-Analisa fundamental, atau TA-Analisa Teknikal. Dua-dua ada pro dan con masing-masing. Warren Buffet pun menang, Darryl Guppy pun menang, aku???

Tiada jawapan terus dalam hal ini. Paparan ini tercetus dari artikel INI dimana blogger ni dah buat analisa beliau dalam pasaran unit trust. Dia ada kaedah tersendiri dalam memilih tabungan dengan melakukan analisa berdasarkan prestasi.
Lalu saya ambil kaedah yang sama dan melihat dari sudut pasaran saham pula kerana pada saya "lapuran penganalisa ini bersepah" dan siapa-siapa pun boleh dapatkannya. Dari lapuran ini, yang ketara adalah cadangan ataupun syor untuk beli atau jual.

Jadi untuk tujuan mencari jawapan ini, saya gunakan lapuran dari sebuah institusi yang besar dirantau asia ini (lapuran ini lebih 300 mukasurat, bak kata orang - koprehensif). Mereka-mereka yang
menulis lapuran ini adalah kebanyakannya adalah lulusan professional dalam bidang analisa ini.

Jawapan yang saya cari ialah: Adakah lapuran penganalisa ini untuk saya?

Ringkasan penilaian

Data dalam rigkasan diatas adalah berikut:
1. ID - nombor pengenalan data
2. Pr@8Dec14 -Harga pada tarikh berkenaan
3. Tgt - Target Harga
4. %UpDn - Peratusan kenaian atau penurunan
5. Recom - Cadangan/Syor penganalisa
6. Prdict  - Tukar Reduce=0, Hold=1, Add=2*
7. Pr@Dec - Harga pada akhir Dec14
8. Pr@Sep15 - Harga pada akhir Sep15
9. PrCheck  - Ruang untuk memeriksa harga adalah munasabah^^
10.PrSepVsTgt - Harga Sep15 tolak Harga Target
11.VsTgt - Lose=kalah, Better=Menang**
12.Actual  - Tukar Lose=10, Better=11*

* Dua kolum ini adalah representasi untuk plot graf sahaja.
^^ Didapati ada satu data mengalami split/pecahan nilai
**  Lose=Harga Sept dibawah Target, Menang=Harga Sept melebihi Target Harga

Seksyen berwarna sebelah kiri adalah cabutan dari lapuran penganalisa dan seksyen sebelah kanan adalah analisa saya untuk menentukan jawapan yang saya cari.


Di akhir lapuran penganalisa ada definasi berikut:-

Stock Ratings Definition:
Add: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.
Reduce: The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.


Ya jangkamasa 12 bulan tu ada ~ dua bulan lagi, jadi analisa ni terkurang 2 bulan lah.
Tak mengapa kerana saya bukan memerlukan jawapan tepat seperti saintis loji nuklear - saya hanya ingin buat validasi adakah lapuran penganalisa saham untuk kita?

Klik imej untuk besarkan

Dari plot graf diatas saya dah dapat jawapan. Lapuran tersebut bukan untuk orang seperti saya. Anda yang masih ingin kepastian, boleh download fail pdf tersebut dan mulakan kajian sendiri. Ini adalah kajian/pandangan saya untuk menang dalam pasaran - anda bebas menilai!

Jadi saya akan lebih berhati-hatilah selepas ini apabila anda membaca Lapuran Penganalisa Saham kerana saya dah yakin rata-rata lapuran ini bukan untuk saya. Untuk siapa? Masih tiada jawapan.

Mungkin selepas ini saya tulis pula bila lapuran mereka boleh diambil kira.....

SPAC money spinners?

Article by: Random Trading in Aug 2014

SPAC is a wonderful thing..... for the promoter, initial investor and of course selected investors including the so-called cornerstone investor that can get the share directly by private placement. Take the latest SPAC IPO, Reach Energy for example.

When I went through the prospectus of the IPO, I'm quite puzzling about the allocation of the shares available to the public. Basically there are 1 Billion shares issued with 1 Billion free warrant attached with it. What makes me baffling is that 980 Million of those shares are applicable to 'Selected Investors' which include cornerstone investors. Looks, 98% of the 'Public' portion goes to the 'Selected Investors' and the pathetically 20 Million shares are allotted to the 'Real Public' like you and me. Seriously, only the meager 2% are offering to the Malaysian Public and you call it IPO. Why don't you guys just ask another 'Selected Investor' subscribe the rest and keep the company private for your club members. The 42 times oversubscribe is just another joke. Why did our authority allow this blatantly abuse of IPO a green light. You know what is the worst part of it? There is moratorium on the promoter and initial investor BUT NOT THE 'SELECTED INVESTOR' & CORNERSTONE INVESTOR!!! WHY? Ohh... because they are deem to be pubic allocation so no need for moratorium. WOW!!! NICE!!!

Then, who is these 'selected investors'? I don't know because I can't find any of that information from the prospectus. If any one knows please let me know. Also they didn't mentioned the criteria to become 'selected investors' because I believe the real public really want to know so that we can qualify ourselves to become 'selected investors'. Why Bursa didn't compel them to disclose the information of these 'selected investors' since they take up almost all the IPO's shares? Are they related to the promoters or initial investors? Don't you think it is important since if they are related then there is a very high chance they can circumvent the moratorium to make a quick bucks out of it. Why the Minority Watchdog didn't bring the issue to the authority?

Further breakdown of the shareholding of the enlarge Reach Energy as below:

Reach Energy Holding (Promoter) - 20%
Daya Material (Initial investor) - 1.74%
Selected investors - 76.7%
Real Public - 1.56% (Who ever successfully subscribe this portion can consider themselves extremely lucky)

Then below is the effective cash cost per shares for the various shareholders: (This is mind-blowing)

Reach Energy Holding (REH)
113.6M shares + 113.6M Free Warrant (FW) @ 0.045
142M shares + 142M FW @ 0.099
Total cost RM 19.17 Million for total 255.6 M shares + 255.6 M FW

Daya Material (I will just provide the cost directly instead of showing the calculation)
Total cost RM 20 Million for total 22,222,225 Shares + 22,222,225 FW

Selected Investors & Real Public cost is RM 0.75 per shares + FW

So just take the closing price of 1st trading day, Reach - 0.705 & Reach WA - 0.225

Paper gain for :
REH = RM 218,538,000
Daya = RM 666,667 ( not so much, probably that's why its share price fall)
Selected Investors = RM 176,000,000 (ohh ya! this is not paper gain since they can actually sell it)

Real Public = RM 900,000

Ya. They do gave the reasons to justify why the promoter should allow to have that potential gain :

1) They invested RM 10M before the IPO so if IPO failed to go through then they will have to absorb the lost. (basically they are telling us that they make a bet of 10 M for potential of more than 200 M)

2) The remuneration of the management team came from the fund that promoter put in, not the public subscription money. But they forget to mentioned that the management team is actually the promoter so the money is just left hand out, right hand in. So, where is the risk?

3) In case they failed to make QA within stipulated time, they might not get the pro-rata refund from the trust money. Well, since they already cycle back their initial fund from the remuneration, I don't see they have anything to lose at all.

Ya, I forget to show you the management team remuneration package: (I purposely took off their names)

So, whether they are justified to allow the potential WINDFALL or not, I leave it to you to make your judgement.

That's why to me, SPAC is the most brilliant invention of modern stock market.

Off from day one, until....

Related Article >>> Data con?



UPDATE: 25Feb2016

Cliq to be liquidated, SC rejects request for deadline extension

Probably the first in the series. 

20 Reasons I Won’t Return to a Stock Market Job

This is one good piece of confession found at safalniveshak.com

A friend also relate his story to me. He did follow analyst advice many years before until he discover a "highly promising buy call" from almost all analysts and the counters fell into the ditch a year later. After that episode, he never trust their words anymore, and his winnings thereafter are all base on waiting fundamentally strong to come out of their slumber. It really pay off!

1.  It’s a place where logic, as I’ve learned over the years, doesn’t always matter.
2. It’s a place where the priorities are out of order – making fast money and evangelizing big investors is on the top of this priority list. The small investor, I think, does not exist at all!
3. It’s a place where analysts are able (and are paid) to find stocks that are “good values at any price” and stocks the values of which will “perpetually rise”.
4. It’s a place where daylight robbery happens in the plain sight of everyone, from investors to regulators – and no one seem to mind.
5. It’s a place where you are counted among the few foolish if you try to stay objective.
6. It’s a place where dealing with small investors is considered a wastage of time – that distracts the analyst from “doing research”, and siphons off time that otherwise might be used to serve big, institutional clients and win “best analyst” votes.
7. It’s a place where “risk” is thrown out of the window…literally!
8. It’s a place where “warnings”, “worst case scenarios”, and other details that institutional clients read and take time to understand never make it to the regular folks (people like you and me).
9. It’s a place where the only game they play is called “expectations”, and reality, even when it bites, never gets etched in the mind.
10. It’s the only place where trees rise to the skies.
11. It’s a place filled with misplaced belief that analysts seem to have the magic wand to reverse a stock’s decline, simply by saying it wasn’t so.
12. It’s a place where information travels unevenly. Of course, the small investor gets the least information, and gets it last!
13. It’s a place with so many disappointments and reversals that at the end of a few years, you lose the ability to be shocked by anything.
14. It’s a place where, as you gain experience, you lose your powers of rational thinking.
15. It’s a place where, if you have some sanity left, you will add a line in your valuation model that reads – “adjustment for irrational exuberance”.
16. It’s a place where the small investor is playing a loser’s game.
17. It’s a place where your obligation to be independent isn’t economically logical, especially when you are working with a broking firm whose primary purpose is to maximize profits.
18. It’s a place filled with “smart” men and women who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
19. It’s a place where two types of people meet up in the morning: those with experience and those with money. At the end of each day, those who had experience have the money, and those who had money have the experience.
20. It’s a place where they fool people. 

"Think independently and don’t let yourself be influenced by the “noise”. Stay focused on analysis, valuation, and margin of safety. Despite all its ills, the stock market is still a place where you, if you can keep your head when others around you are losing their’s, you can achieve your financial freedom."

Related post on PDT/IVTs

Treat All Investors Equally

I REFER to the report “Bursa sets record straight on remisiers issues” (The Star, Dec 11). The concerns raised by the Remisiers’ Association of Malaysia or Pesama has its basis.

Liberalisation of brokerage fees is fine if it reduces trading cost for all investors. However, what many investors are not aware of is that there exist certain type of privileged market players who do not pay any fees. They are called Proprietary Day Traders (PDTs) and Investment Accounts (IVTs).

Basically, these are personal or the house account of the dealer or broker and their full-time job is to trade or speculate as much as possible.They are not serious or long-term investors as they will usually square their positions on the same day.

While most investors must pay brokerage fee, clearing fee and stamp duty whenever they trade, these PDTs and IVTs do not incur such costs. This zero cost privilege has enabled them to profit from even a minimal of one uptick or half a sen when normal investors have to wait patiently for at least nine upticks before they can even break even (based on the minimal brokerage of RM40 for both the buy and sell side).

Since they pay no fees and therefore bring no income to the regulators, why are they treated better than others?

Effectively, they are granted a free hand to trade, speculate or gamble in the market on a different set of rules of which the odds are better off than the genuine and serious investors.This has made a mockery of the fair and orderly market motto that the regulators often trumpet.

It has been argued that the privilege is given as an inducement for them to trade and thereby create an impression of active and vibrant market condition. The intention is well and good. However, the reality is that it has created extreme disorderliness and volatility to price and volume movement arising from their aggressive speculative nature and coming from a nothing-to-lose mentality due to the zero cost benefit.
Their no value added activities have caused more headaches than positives for the regulators.

Many unusual trading activities were not due to any material development in the company but were due to excessive speculation by these PDTs and IVTs.In addition, regulators have set little limits over their trading activities. It has often been said that the regulators have created an animal they can’t control.
It is like letting loose a high horsepower car on the highway without imposing any speed limit thereby endangering other users.

Many genuine and serious investors have been influenced/lured to trade by the price and volume trend, thinking something materially positive may be developing in the company; only to discover later that it was just speculation caused by these parties hoping to profit from price volatility.
The regulators need to get their act together and treat all investors equally especially when it comes to investing as the money used to invest may be hard earned.

Investors must also be informed and aware that rules of the game may not be the same for everyone and not be overly excited by rise in price and volume as this may just be hot air created out of nothing.

STRICTLY FAIR AND ORDERLY
Kajang

This reader comment was published in TheStar on 13Dec13.
So who is protecting the small fish?

Kejatuhan mendadak saham Dsonic, kenapa?

Sebelum ini kita lihat kejatuhan saham Zhulian dan ini pula berlaku pada saham Dsonic. Harap beri perhatian pada artikel berikut dibawah yang telah disiarkan oleh TheStar dimana komen oleh pakar waran Alan Voon. Hati-hati jika anda melabur dalam "call warrant". Manipulasi yang dibenarkan?......


PETALING JAYA: Shares of Datasonic Group Bhd have steadied, but questions are still being asked about the stock’s spectacular run-up since January this year and its sudden plunge on Friday.
The share correction in Datasonic’s share price came amidst a rare trading caution on the stock issued by Bursa Malaysia on April 2 and days after a call warrant (CW) was issued on the company by an investment bank.
Alan Voon, a warrants specialist, offered his view that it was risky for a third party to issue a call warrant on shares of a company that had gone up 10 times in the last one year.
“If I had to make a general deduction, I would imagine a high risk bet by the issuer on Datasonic if the share prices continued the upward trajectory it had been on,’’ he said.

The issuer would have needed to protect itself, Voon said, either by hedging or coming to some kind of arrangement with those holding large chunks of the shares in the company.
The call warrants on Datasonic caught interest because the company had publicly issued a statement on March 28 to distance itself from the instrument.
In a statement to Bursa Malaysia, Datasonic stated that the company was not involved or responsible for the issuance of the call warrants by an investment bank.
“The board wishes to draw attention to all investors that Datasonic is not liable and takes no responsibility for the call warrants,” it said.
There is a large number of call warrants issued by third party issuers in the market. These call warrants are primarily aimed at short term speculators looking to ride on the company with minimal capital outlay.
AmBank’s call warrants on Datasonic carries a conversion ratio of six-for-one at an exercise price of RM3.72. Datasonic-CW was last traded at 30 sen yesterday, up 0.5 sen from its previous close.
The CW will expire on Jan 12, 2015. Meanwhile, the underlaying Datasonic share price slipped 6 sen, or 1.6% yesterday to close at RM3.58 on a volume of 6.81 million shares.
A total of 30.8 million shares were transacted on Friday, on the day when the stock collapsed by RM1.06, or 22.6% to RM3.64 amid reports that it may attract stricter trading curbs by the exchange.
This was later denied by the company in a brief press statement.
“The volatility is likely to ensue until the last of the warrants is sold.
“Only then will trading volume ebb,” Voon said.
Datasonic’s share price had surged from about RM2 in May 2013 to nearly RM10 in late December.
After its one-for-two bonus issue in July 2013 and a one-into-five share split in December, its share price again continued its upward trajectory.
Its earnings leapt 505% to RM22.81mil in the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 2013 from RM3.76mil a year ago, bolstered by an improvement in revenue.
Its revenue rose at a slower pace of 73% to RM72.55mil from RM41.96mil. Earnings per share were 3.38 sen compared with 0.56 sen.