Reality Check: Lapuran Penganalisa Saham untuk siapa sebenarnya?

Sesiapa yang baru berada dalam pasaran saham selalu tertanya, nak ikut laluan mana satu, ikut FA-Analisa fundamental, atau TA-Analisa Teknikal. Dua-dua ada pro dan con masing-masing. Warren Buffet pun menang, Darryl Guppy pun menang, aku???

Tiada jawapan terus dalam hal ini. Paparan ini tercetus dari artikel INI dimana blogger ni dah buat analisa beliau dalam pasaran unit trust. Dia ada kaedah tersendiri dalam memilih tabungan dengan melakukan analisa berdasarkan prestasi.
Lalu saya ambil kaedah yang sama dan melihat dari sudut pasaran saham pula kerana pada saya "lapuran penganalisa ini bersepah" dan siapa-siapa pun boleh dapatkannya. Dari lapuran ini, yang ketara adalah cadangan ataupun syor untuk beli atau jual.

Jadi untuk tujuan mencari jawapan ini, saya gunakan lapuran dari sebuah institusi yang besar dirantau asia ini (lapuran ini lebih 300 mukasurat, bak kata orang - koprehensif). Mereka-mereka yang
menulis lapuran ini adalah kebanyakannya adalah lulusan professional dalam bidang analisa ini.

Jawapan yang saya cari ialah: Adakah lapuran penganalisa ini untuk saya?

Ringkasan penilaian

Data dalam rigkasan diatas adalah berikut:
1. ID - nombor pengenalan data
2. Pr@8Dec14 -Harga pada tarikh berkenaan
3. Tgt - Target Harga
4. %UpDn - Peratusan kenaian atau penurunan
5. Recom - Cadangan/Syor penganalisa
6. Prdict  - Tukar Reduce=0, Hold=1, Add=2*
7. Pr@Dec - Harga pada akhir Dec14
8. Pr@Sep15 - Harga pada akhir Sep15
9. PrCheck  - Ruang untuk memeriksa harga adalah munasabah^^
10.PrSepVsTgt - Harga Sep15 tolak Harga Target
11.VsTgt - Lose=kalah, Better=Menang**
12.Actual  - Tukar Lose=10, Better=11*

* Dua kolum ini adalah representasi untuk plot graf sahaja.
^^ Didapati ada satu data mengalami split/pecahan nilai
**  Lose=Harga Sept dibawah Target, Menang=Harga Sept melebihi Target Harga

Seksyen berwarna sebelah kiri adalah cabutan dari lapuran penganalisa dan seksyen sebelah kanan adalah analisa saya untuk menentukan jawapan yang saya cari.


Di akhir lapuran penganalisa ada definasi berikut:-

Stock Ratings Definition:
Add: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
Hold: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and positive 10% over the next 12 months.
Reduce: The stock’s total return is expected to fall below 0% or more over the next 12 months.


Ya jangkamasa 12 bulan tu ada ~ dua bulan lagi, jadi analisa ni terkurang 2 bulan lah.
Tak mengapa kerana saya bukan memerlukan jawapan tepat seperti saintis loji nuklear - saya hanya ingin buat validasi adakah lapuran penganalisa saham untuk kita?

Klik imej untuk besarkan

Dari plot graf diatas saya dah dapat jawapan. Lapuran tersebut bukan untuk orang seperti saya. Anda yang masih ingin kepastian, boleh download fail pdf tersebut dan mulakan kajian sendiri. Ini adalah kajian/pandangan saya untuk menang dalam pasaran - anda bebas menilai!

Jadi saya akan lebih berhati-hatilah selepas ini apabila anda membaca Lapuran Penganalisa Saham kerana saya dah yakin rata-rata lapuran ini bukan untuk saya. Untuk siapa? Masih tiada jawapan.

Mungkin selepas ini saya tulis pula bila lapuran mereka boleh diambil kira.....

Dear Politician, Does Malaysia really need TPPA?

I've share the post about A matter of life and death, an article that get me interested in the TPP in the first place. This issue is not making life simpler but indeed going to make it harder. These are snippets of information dig out from various sources.

I've made up my mind about this issue and you had a chance to read through links below and decide.


View#1
"That (TPPA) is not a trade deal, it is an investment deal," said Dr Jomo Kwame Sundaram, who is also assistant secretary-general of economic development in the United Nations' Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).

"Malaysia gets next to nothing. I was extremely disappointed and I think it is going to affect not only the Malaysian business community, but also the consumers and citizens adversely," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Khazanah Megatrend Forum 2015 today.

He said the agreement is mainly driven by "political considerations" for the US to isolate China.

"Hence, it (TPPA) is not really to help Malaysia, and (the) trade advantages are very minimal," he added.

Jomo cited Malaysia, which has been producing solar panels, being prohibited to sell the solar panels in the US and elsewhere under the pact.

"This is contravening the multi-lateral trade agreements and I do not expect the TPPA to overcome this," he said.

According to Jomo, the main impact of the TPPA would be the increasing cost of intellectual property, which will have many implications on electronics and cost of medication.

"We can wipe out many diseases in the world, but the people who control the drugs are depriving people of the world from benefitting it," he said.



View#2
What was promised to us is a Parliamentary debate, not approval. Under Malaysian law, trade agreements, the TPPA in particular, do not require parliamentary approval. The power to decide rests on the Executive.

5. This is a done deal. No country has ever walked out of an agreement after negotiations have concluded.

9. The release of a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) or National Interest Analysis had been promised and postponed since end of last year to every consecutive month since May 2015 to date. Until now, it has not been released and we only have three (3) months from the official date of negotiation’s conclusion to the date that it has to be signed. The CBA, if finalised and released earlier, would have provided the public and interested parties with a greater understanding of the TPP and its implications.



View#3
“If instituted, the TPP’s IP regime would trample over individual rights and free expression, as well as ride roughshod over the intellectual and creative commons,” Assange said. “If you read, write, publish, think, listen, dance, sing or invent; if you farm or consume food; if you’re ill now or might one day be ill, the TPP has you in its crosshairs.”

“No wonder they kept it secret. What a malicious piece of US corporate lobbying. TPP is about world domination for US corporations. Nothing else. We will stop this madness in New Zealand,” he told RT’s Andrew Blake.


View#4
If you still haven’t made up your mind, read the chilling “The Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Death of the Republic” by Ellen Brown of the Public Banking Institute. Is it all hyperbole, or could things be as ominous as they seem?

The TPP, which involves 12 nations and 40% of the earth’s trade, has been called “NAFTA on steroids.” (NAFTA, recall, was the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement of 1993 negotiated during the Clinton Presidency). Every such agreement has been sold to the public by the promise that free trade floats all boats. What’s the reality? According to Buchanan, “… almost all [the big trade agreements] have led to soaring trade deficits and jobs lost to the nations with whom we signed the agreements.” Over the past four decades of free trade, America, cites Buchanan, has lost 55,000 factories and 5-6 million manufacturing jobs, all while racking up $11 trillion dollars in trade deficits.



View#5
Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement Permits Corporations To Sue States
Leaked TPP investment chapter: Corporations can sue states in private courts



View#6
Malaysia will lose RM75billion & the government can be sued - Listen to podcast.


So my question to beloved politician, does Malaysia really need TPPA? Think hard rather than aye sir!

photo credit - bilaterals.org